What is Genius? Is There a Genius Trading State?

Think about what Sir John Templeton did in 1999 at the heart of the dot.com stock bubble. He took his entire personal fortune and shorted various dot.com stocks. At the time, that behaviour might have sounded insane. After all, those stocks could move 10% each day in that period … and usually the big move days were to the upside. But John Templeton shorted and stayed with those shorts through the dot.com crash. You might consider that to be a stroke of genius. Let’s consider what John Paulson did in 2007. He concluded that home prices had gone up over

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