- Bloomberg raises Bitcoin ETF approval odds to 75% for 2023 and 95% by 2024, influenced by Grayscale’s recent legal triumph.
- A flurry of Bitcoin ETF applications awaits SEC’s ‘first deadline’ decisions, including those from industry giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck.
Through his X account, Independent blockchain researcher and writer for various crypto news websites, Collin Brown, spotlighted a recent Bloomberg report. The report elevates the likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF gaining approval to 75% by the end of 2023 and an even more optimistic 95% by the year 2024. This significant uptick in approval odds, up from a previous estimation of 65%, follows in the wake of Grayscale’s pivotal legal win against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), setting the stage for what could be a transformative period for Bitcoin ETFs.
Bloomberg: 75% chance of 2023 #Bitcoin ETF, 95% by 2024. Grayscale’s influence leaves little SEC leeway for the #BTC ETF approval. Details: https://t.co/3PAK8vNVeV https://t.co/QO5jabj83z pic.twitter.com/MaT20ENHXP
— Collin Brown (@CollinBrownBTC) August 31, 2023
Grayscale’s Win Influences the Landscape
Grayscale’s recent win against the SEC is fueling this uplifted sentiment. The U.S. Court of Appeals called the SEC’s reasons for denying Grayscale’s application “unlawful.” The court decision has made it increasingly difficult for the SEC to justify any more delays or rejections in the ETF space. As Collin Brown notes, the agency is now cornered with “little leeway” to reject future applications.
A Packed Agenda: Multiple Applications Await SEC Review
In the coming days, the SEC is slated to make ‘first deadline’ decisions on seven major Bitcoin ETF applications. These include applications from industry behemoths like Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie. The most likely scenario, as projected by Bloomberg’s Balchunas, is an unexpected, collective approval of these Bitcoin spot ETFs.
SEC Review Timelines: What to Expect
The SEC generally takes up to 240 days for the standard review of ETF proposals after they are added to the federal register. However, this timeline is not rigid. The SEC can extend the review period if it requires additional time for evaluation. The first of these deadlines is expected to fall on this coming Saturday, September 2nd, as pointed out by both Bloomberg analysts.
High Chances but No Guarantees
Although the chances of ETF approval have soared, industry experts still caution that the SEC can delay, appeal, or deny applications for reasons other than those mentioned in the Grayscale case. “The chances have increased since the Grayscale decision, but the SEC can still appeal or deny applications for other reasons,” mentioned Tim Bevan, CEO at ETC Group.
Amidst this backdrop, industry experts and analysts are holding their breath, anticipating that a positive outcome could trigger a new all-time high in Bitcoin prices, possibly reaching up to $150,000. With all eyes on the SEC’s upcoming decisions, the crypto industry remains on the edge of a potentially transformative moment.
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